Is it a good time to SELL?

I know I talk and write a lot about statistics. But I've always loved numbers and love to figure out the stories that weave in and around numbers. For months now, I, and many of my Realtor colleagues, have been telling our friends and associates that "it's a great time to buy!" Prices have been steadily declining and interest rates are amazingly low. There was also a lot of inventory available which defined a great market for buyers! But this perspective wasn't really the ideal situation for someone who needed to sell.

And then along come statistics. I, and about 150 other Santa Clara County Realtors, am briefed on the numbers weekly at a broker's meeting every Wednesday morning. Each week for the past 3 months I have heard this story: The number of available properties "Active" for sale is dwindling, while the number of properties "Pending" is increasing. For the first few weeks, I was skeptical...."well, we'll just see if this continues" is what I was telling myself. But by now I am beginning to see a very clear TREND!

(all of these numbers are based on "Single Family Residence" stats. We don't include condos/townhomes because they *generally* follow the same trends)

Let's compare this year to last year.

First of all "TOTAL ACTIVE INVENTORY":
May 2009: 4,127
May 2008: 7,126 (I know this is obvious, but check out how FEWER homes available there are today!)

PENDING:
May 2009: 3647
May 2008: 1825 (Okay, I'll stop stating the obvious, but this means MORE homes are actually under contract! Translation: Buyers are buying!!)

County-wide, 46.9% of homes are Pending. ALMOST HALF!!! This is incredible stuff!

Hottest markets this week:
Milpitas has been significantly hot for months now and currently has 58.8% of inventory under contract (Pending).
But now, some other areas of Santa Clara County are moving!
Santa Teresa 62.8% Pending
Alviso 60.3% Pending
Berryessa 55.9% Pending
Evergreen 52.9% Pending
Blossom Valley 59% Pending
Saratoga 16.1% Pending (was down in single digits 4-7% a year ago!)
Los Gatos 18.5% Pending
Almaden Valley 30% Pending (this is AMAZING jump in AV!--almost double over a month ago!)

Now some of you naysayers out there are going to say--"oh yeah? well that's because of all the foreclosures that are being bought up!" So we dig a little deeper and we categorize ALL of these stats into 3 types of seller properties--- 1) REO's (bank-owned foreclosures), 2) Short Sales, and 3) what we Realtors have affectionately termed "Traditional" Sales.

So are these numbers skewed by the foreclosures and short sales?

In Blossom Valley, 46.9% of all Pending homes are "Traditional" sales.
In Almaden Valley, 30.6% of all Pending homes are "Traditional".
Cambrian has 32.2% of all Pending Sales "Traditional".

One other area that was VERY hard hit by the economy is the Morgan Hill/Gilroy/San Martin area of Santa Clara County. This time last year, there were 831 unsold properties in that area. Today there are 377.

What do all these numbers mean? TRENDS!!!!

1) Actual number of homes on the market continues to decline (good news for sellers!)
2) Of homes on the market, percentages of homes SELLING is rising! (good news for sellers!)
3) Ratio of REO's & Short Sales to Traditional sales continues to change in favor of traditional sales (good news for traditional sellers whose market prices have been driven downward by REO's and short sales!)

I've got many, many other stats that I'm looking at each week while I watch the market, but these are some I thought might carry interest for the souls that might happen upon my blog.

My personal interpretation isn't that we're near any tipping point at all. What I see instead is a "evening-out" of the market. With low prices and interest rates, buyers still have a great advantage. And now we are starting to see a market that is also advantageous to sellers.

I always say that the best transactions are those where both the buyer and seller come away feeling like winners! We may very well be at that "WIN-WIN" point in the market.

Happy Wednesday!

Affordable Housing Week in San Jose--Pass the Word!

Reprinted WITHOUT permission...from an email I got:

Affordable Housing Week helps promote awareness of the challenges we face in creating sustainable
and affordable communities that meet the needs of all residents. The City of San José will celebrate Affordable
Housing Week, May 11 through May 22, with a special lecture series on interesting and educational topics
designed to engage and enlighten participants.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 1 3 , 2 0 0 9 , 6 : 0 0 P. M . - 8 : 0 0 P.M.
EVENT Community by Design: Innovations in Affordable Housing
PURPOSE A panel will discuss how affordable housing adds life to a community, including Green building design
elements, supporting the arts community and providing community space for services.
LOCATION The Roosevelt Community Center, 901 East Santa Clara Street, San José
CONTACT Kristen Clements at 408.535.8236

THURSDAY, MAY 1 4 , 2 0 0 9 , 9 : 0 0 A . M - 1 : 0 0 P.M.
EVENT Project Family Connect
PURPOSE The Project FAMILY Connect event will help families find housing, access medical and dental care,
school enrollment, employment opportunities, job search resources, legal services, youth services,
food, and much more.
LOCATION InnVision’s One Stop Homeless Prevention Center - Georgia Travis Center, 297 Commercial St.
CONTACT Jarrod Gray at 975.4487

THURSDAY, MAY 1 4 , 2 0 0 9 , 6 : 0 0 P. M . - 8 : 0 0 P.M.
EVENT One Paycheck Away
PURPOSE Affordable housing is the lynchpin to making living costs reasonable, preventing poverty, and keeping
communities stable. This topic will be discussed by a panel that will provide a perspective on social
equity, policy and the new poverty standard.
LOCATION San José City Hall Rotunda, 200 E. Santa Clara Street, San José
CONTACT Melissa Whatley at 408.975.4418

SATURDAY, MAY 1 6 , 2 0 0 9 , 8 : 0 0 A . M . - 1 : 0 0 P.M.
EVENT 2009 Whistle Stop Housing Tour - Winchester Light-Rail Line
LOCATION Starting Location: Water Tower Plaza, 300 Orchard City Drive, Campbell
CONTACT Register at: http://whistlestop09.eventbrite.com

MONDAY, MAY 1 8 , 2 0 0 9 , 1 2 : 0 0 P. M . - 2 : 0 0 P.M.
EVENT Foreclosure Help
PURPOSE With the escalation of foreclosures in San José, 14,000 in 2008, there is no better time to provide
information and education on this important topic. A panel will discuss current city and county
statistics and City assistance to those in need.
LOCATION The Roosevelt Community Center, 901 East Santa Clara Street, San José
CONTACT Sandra Murillo at 408.975.4415

FRIDAY, MAY 2 2 , 2 0 0 9 , 1 2 : 0 0 P. M - 1 : 0 0 P.M.
EVENT Why It’s a Good Time to Buy a Home
PURPOSE Questions about the housing market, if this is the right time to buy a home, the
status of tax credits and the availability of City funds are just a few of the questions
that will be addressed in this interactive presentation.
LOCATION San José City Hall Rotunda, 200 E. Santa Clara Street, San José
CONTACT Brandi Hoffman-Ooka at 408.535.8232

T: 408.535.8502 F:292.6755
www.strongneighborhoods.org

Homebuying for First-Timers

I was privileged to be interviewed a few days ago by a writer for the Christian Science Monitor. Reporter Mike Farrell was investigating what he called the "psychology" of the First-Time Homebuyer and how it might have changed or be different in the current economy from years back. His article appears here:
http://features.csmonitor.com/economyrebuild/2009/04/15/first-time-homebuyers-jolt-market-into-life/

--be sure to click the "sound" button at the top of the article for additional audio comments by Farrell.

One of the things we spoke about--which didn't make its way into the article, was about mortgage assistance programs. Most first-time homebuyers aren't aware of some of the programs that *still* have money! There are down-payment assistance programs here in the city of San Jose for public school teachers, and special loans for all participants statewide who are members of California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS). Several cities have down-payment assistance programs--Milpitas and San Jose to name a couple--that work in the form of an equity-share partnership between the homebuyer and the city.

The moral of the story is that First-Timers should look for a Realtor & Loan Officer that knows about these programs--how to qualify for the programs and how to process a transaction using these programs. I am always thrilled to work with first-time homebuyers and have been involved with many specialized financing options available for more than three years.

If you're already a homeowner, please pass this tidbit on to your friends who are still renters! They don't know what they don't know. :-)

Happy Homes!
-Marci

The high cost of waiting!!

Many of the potential buyers I've been talking to for the past few months say to me "I'm going to wait! I know prices will continue to come down!" So I did a little research using my calculator.

Let's say that today you could buy a home and use a fixed-rate mortgage loan for $500,000 at 5.5%. At the end of 5 years, you would have paid approximately $132,640 in total interest.

Let's then imagine that you WAIT! and get that same home for $30,000 less than today---but at that point interest rates have gone up to 7.25%. So let's see--now you have a loan for $470,000 at 7.25%. At the end of 5 years, you would have paid approximately $165,954 in total interest.

So 5 years from now, you have paid $33,314 MORE in interest just to save $30,000 on the purchase price.

Somebody check my math okay? But I've run the numbers a couple of times just to see what happens. "Waiting" looks like it might actually be costing you more than jumping in right now!

Home buyers are in the eye of the perfect storm---the lowest home prices in years combined with the lowest interest rates in years. This kind of real estate junction is rare indeed and we should ALL be taking advantage of it.

If you've been "waiting" to buy, please give me a call and let's look at the numbers together and talk about your options. Don't miss out on the incredible opportunities available in TODAY's real estate market.

Happy Homes!
-Marci Orler, the First-Time Homebuyer Specialist

The Numbers Don't Lie

Reposted here from my Facebook page:

I've officially stopped reading the newspaper and listening to the TV news. Today's Merc has the most "grim" story on the front page about the economy----including Real Estate in the Valley. But the truth lies underneath all the belly-aching and drama.

Here's a bit of interesting information:

Today's statistics in Santa Clara County---derived from the shared MLS Listings site that members of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors use:

Active Properties = 5316 (this same time last year, the number was 6553)
Pending Properties = 2560 (this same time last year, the number was 1243)
County Average for Pending Sales = 33.3% (Last year was 16.4%)

The National Association of Realtors has long defined a "seller's market" as a market where more than 25% of the available properties are under contract (Pending). But you do have to keep in mind that many of these properties are bank-owned (have been foreclosed) so we have to keep some perspective with judging what's going on.

HOT Markets:Milpitas = 45% properties are Pending
Santa Teresa = 42.8% properties are Pending
Blossom Valley = 42.2% properties are Pending

Slowest Markets:Almaden Valley = 12.8% Pending
Los Gatos/Monte Sereno = 11.7% Pending
Saratoga = 8.3% Pending

We're seeing # of properties available going down and % of Pending properties going up. Are the numbers shocking or outrageous? Nah. But numbers are INDICATORS. And numbers have no drama. Gotta love it.
---The always optimistic Realtor, Marci