Is it a good time to SELL?

I know I talk and write a lot about statistics. But I've always loved numbers and love to figure out the stories that weave in and around numbers. For months now, I, and many of my Realtor colleagues, have been telling our friends and associates that "it's a great time to buy!" Prices have been steadily declining and interest rates are amazingly low. There was also a lot of inventory available which defined a great market for buyers! But this perspective wasn't really the ideal situation for someone who needed to sell.

And then along come statistics. I, and about 150 other Santa Clara County Realtors, am briefed on the numbers weekly at a broker's meeting every Wednesday morning. Each week for the past 3 months I have heard this story: The number of available properties "Active" for sale is dwindling, while the number of properties "Pending" is increasing. For the first few weeks, I was skeptical...."well, we'll just see if this continues" is what I was telling myself. But by now I am beginning to see a very clear TREND!

(all of these numbers are based on "Single Family Residence" stats. We don't include condos/townhomes because they *generally* follow the same trends)

Let's compare this year to last year.

First of all "TOTAL ACTIVE INVENTORY":
May 2009: 4,127
May 2008: 7,126 (I know this is obvious, but check out how FEWER homes available there are today!)

PENDING:
May 2009: 3647
May 2008: 1825 (Okay, I'll stop stating the obvious, but this means MORE homes are actually under contract! Translation: Buyers are buying!!)

County-wide, 46.9% of homes are Pending. ALMOST HALF!!! This is incredible stuff!

Hottest markets this week:
Milpitas has been significantly hot for months now and currently has 58.8% of inventory under contract (Pending).
But now, some other areas of Santa Clara County are moving!
Santa Teresa 62.8% Pending
Alviso 60.3% Pending
Berryessa 55.9% Pending
Evergreen 52.9% Pending
Blossom Valley 59% Pending
Saratoga 16.1% Pending (was down in single digits 4-7% a year ago!)
Los Gatos 18.5% Pending
Almaden Valley 30% Pending (this is AMAZING jump in AV!--almost double over a month ago!)

Now some of you naysayers out there are going to say--"oh yeah? well that's because of all the foreclosures that are being bought up!" So we dig a little deeper and we categorize ALL of these stats into 3 types of seller properties--- 1) REO's (bank-owned foreclosures), 2) Short Sales, and 3) what we Realtors have affectionately termed "Traditional" Sales.

So are these numbers skewed by the foreclosures and short sales?

In Blossom Valley, 46.9% of all Pending homes are "Traditional" sales.
In Almaden Valley, 30.6% of all Pending homes are "Traditional".
Cambrian has 32.2% of all Pending Sales "Traditional".

One other area that was VERY hard hit by the economy is the Morgan Hill/Gilroy/San Martin area of Santa Clara County. This time last year, there were 831 unsold properties in that area. Today there are 377.

What do all these numbers mean? TRENDS!!!!

1) Actual number of homes on the market continues to decline (good news for sellers!)
2) Of homes on the market, percentages of homes SELLING is rising! (good news for sellers!)
3) Ratio of REO's & Short Sales to Traditional sales continues to change in favor of traditional sales (good news for traditional sellers whose market prices have been driven downward by REO's and short sales!)

I've got many, many other stats that I'm looking at each week while I watch the market, but these are some I thought might carry interest for the souls that might happen upon my blog.

My personal interpretation isn't that we're near any tipping point at all. What I see instead is a "evening-out" of the market. With low prices and interest rates, buyers still have a great advantage. And now we are starting to see a market that is also advantageous to sellers.

I always say that the best transactions are those where both the buyer and seller come away feeling like winners! We may very well be at that "WIN-WIN" point in the market.

Happy Wednesday!